AMD's next-generation Ryzen 6000 CPUs based on the Zen 3+ core architecture and codenamed, Warhol, have reportedly been canceled. The information comes from multiple leakers & insiders whose latest updates suggest that AMD has cut off Warhol from its desktop roadmap and will now be focusing entirely on its Zen 4 Raphael CPUs.
AMD Ryzen 6000 'Warhol' CPUs Based on Zen 3+ 6nm Core Architecture Reportedly Canned, Ryzen 5000 XT Refresh In The Works
The AMD Ryzen 6000 lineup, codenamed Warhol, was expected to feature the Zen 3+ architecture based on the 6nm process node. The lineup would have offered similar gains in performance such as the AMD Zen 2+ (Pinnacle Ridge) chips which were branded as the Ryzen 2000 parts however, it looks like AMD has decided to move away from Warhol and focus on Raphael, its next-generation Zen 4 Desktop CPU lineup.
This is reported by reliable leaker, ExectuableFix, who states that aside from the leaked roadmap, AMD's Ryzen 6000 Warhol lineup hasn't appeared anywhere yet. He states the Zen 4 based AMD Phoenix (Ryzen 7000) APUs have already shown up in other places and a part that comes earlier hasn't even shown up anywhere yet suggests that it no longer exists. On the other hand, another insider has stated that while AMD has cancelled Warhol CPUs, there's still a refresh coming which would be based on the existing Zen 3 core architecture and feature the 7nm process node known as the Ryzen 5000 XT.
I've not seen anything on Warhol. Only that roadmap has mentioned it. Even Phoenix has already been leaked from different places... You can draw your own conclusion based on that 🧐
It is likely that given the current CPU shortages and TSMC's inability to keep up with 7nm demand, AMD decided to skip Warhol CPUs and now focus its efforts on the next-generation AM5 platform featuring the Zen 4 based 5nm Raphael Ryzen CPUs. As mentioned above, there would still be an intermediary refresh for the AM4 platform as several manufacturers are readying X570S boards based on the AM4 socket and X570 chipset. These boards are expected to be announced later in May. Following is a video from Moore's Law is Dead & RedGamingTech which pretty much says the same thing:
As for the refreshed Ryzen CPUs, AMD will be boosting the clock speeds & optimizing them but we shouldn't expect to see any IPC uplifts considering they will be based on the same Zen 3 cores and not the updated Zen 3+ cores. This is all just a rumour for now and there's a chance that Warhol may still exist since the previous Ryzen 3000 Refresh was announced and leaked just days before launch. We will see if that's the case.
AMD Zen CPU / APU Roadmap:
Zen Architecture
Zen 1
Zen+
Zen 2
Zen 3
Zen 3+
Zen 4
Zen 5
Process Node
14nm
12nm
7nm
7nm
6nm?
5nm
3nm?
Server
EPYC Naples (1st Gen)
N/A
EPYC Rome (2nd Gen)
EPYC Milan (3rd Gen)
N/A
EPYC Genoa (4th Gen)
TBA
High-End Desktop
Ryzen Threadripper 1000 (White Haven)
Ryzen Threadripper 2000 (Coflax)
Ryzen Threadripper 3000 (Castle Peak)
Ryzen Threadripper 5000 (Chagal)
N/A
Ryzen Threadripper 6000 (TBA)
TBA
Mainstream Desktop CPUs
Ryzen 1000 (Summit Ridge)
Ryzen 2000 (Pinnacle Ridge)
Ryzen 3000 (Matisse)
Ryzen 5000 (Vermeer)
Ryzen 6000 (Warhol / Cancelled)
Ryzen 6000 (Raphael)
TBA
Mainstream Desktop APU
Ryzen 2000 (Raven Ridge)
Ryzen 3000 (Picasso)
Ryzen 4000 (Renoir)
Ryzen 5000 (Cezanne)
Ryzen 6000 (Rembrandt)
Ryzen 7000 (Phoenix)
Ryzen 8000 (Strix Point)
Low-Power Mobile
N/A
N/A
Ryzen 5000 (Van Gogh)
Ryzen 6000 (Dragon Crest)
TBA
TBA
TBA
TBA
Do you think cancelling Warhol to focus on Ryzen 5000 refresh and Zen 4 Raphael CPUs is going to be a good decision by AMD?
Every year for the past decade, Intel has released a new generation of its Core processors. And every year, we’ve recommended that people buy the newest version they can get—if you’re paying hundreds or thousands of dollars for a computer, you should get one that will feel fast and run all the apps you use for as long as possible. But Intel’s 11th-generation Core processors are a little different, and there are some models we don’t think you should buy.
Specifically, the 11th-generation Core i5, i7, and i9 processors that will be available in many desktop computers in the next couple of months are difficult to recommend because they are only a little faster than the 10th-generation processors they replace, and because they run much hotter and use much more electricity than either those 10th-generation processors or competing AMD Ryzen chips do. Here’s what you need to know about the problems with these processors, what you should look for instead if you’re shopping for a desktop PC, and why, in contrast, we believe Intel’s 11th-generation laptop processors are safe to buy.
Hotter, more power-hungry desktops
To understand why these 11th-generation desktop processors are having problems, you need to know a little about how the processors in computers, tablets, phones, and game consoles get better over time. First, there’s the chip’s architecture, or how it has been designed—a processor is structured a bit like the blueprint of a house, with processor cores, cache memory, and blocks for playing 3D games or high-definition video files all laid out in a precise arrangement. And then there’s the manufacturing process, or how the chip is physically constructed in a chip maker’s factory.
This illustration is abstracted, but it’s more or less how a modern processor looks—it’s one solid chunk of silicon, with different pieces of the chip dedicated to different tasks. Illustration: Intel
Those two concepts are deeply intertwined. One way to make a processor faster is by adding more transistors to the design—a transistor is the basic building block of a computer processor, and the more of them you have, the more your processor can do. The transistor count of a typical desktop computer processor has increased from tens of thousands in the late ’70s to billions today. As you use the computer, those transistors are all being switched on and off constantly, which requires power, which in turn produces heat. So all else being equal, a processor design with more transistors requires more electricity to run and a bigger fan to cool.
But newer manufacturing processes make transistors smaller, which generally reduces the amount of power required to switch them on and off. That way, processor designers can add more transistors to make a processor architecture faster without worrying about making it physically larger or more power-hungry. If you’ve ever wondered why a MacBook Air you can buy today is faster, smaller, thinner, and lighter than a MacBook Air from a decade ago, that’s one major reason.1
So what happened to Intel’s latest desktop chips? Compared with the 10th-generation chips, the 11th-generation processors have an updated architecture but not a newer manufacturing process. This means that they can be faster sometimes, since Intel has added more transistors to their design. But each of those transistors requires the same amount of electricity as those in 10th-generation processors, and as a result, the 11th-generation processors run hotter and are more difficult to cool down. And because processors are designed to slow down (or “throttle”) when they get too hot to avoid burning themselves out, that increased heat can often cancel out whatever speed improvements Intel might have achieved by updating the processors’ architecture in the first place.
What you should buy instead
Intel’s 10th-generation desktop processors are still widely available, and they still perform reasonably well for most tasks, including gaming, professional photo and video editing, 3D modeling, and other tasks that benefit from a lot of processor power. And if you just need a basic desktop for editing documents and spreadsheets, browsing the web, and chatting on video calls, the 10th-generation Core i3 processor is an excellent value.2
We also like desktop processors from AMD, Intel’s biggest competitor in computer processors. Ryzen 5, Ryzen 7, and Ryzen 9 processors from the Ryzen 3000, 4000, and 5000 series are all as good as or better than Intel’s processors in both performance and power use (quite a bit better, once you start comparing Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 9 chips against the Intel Core i7 and i9 lineups). But AMD is a smaller company, and it has been a victim of its own success—AMD Ryzen systems are often harder to find and go out of stock more quickly than Intel PCs. Ryzen 5000 processors in particular are worth waiting for if you can get them, especially if you’re buying a PC for gaming or professional work such as video editing, coding, or designing 3D models. Just know that they have a reputation for being hard to find in an industry where currently everything is hard to find.
11th-generation laptop processors are good, actually
Our problems with Intel’s 11th-generation Core processors for desktops don’t extend to the company’s 11th-generation laptop processors, which are completely different chips despite sharing that Core name and generation. (Perhaps to distinguish between the two, 11th-generation Core laptops are often sold with Intel’s Evo branding instead, which literally downplays the “Core” by putting that word under the “Evo” in tiny print.) These chips offer a maximum of four processor cores, down from six or eight cores in the desktop chips, which means they aren’t as fast on some heavy-duty tasks like editing videos or playing games. But they generally offer a big step up in performance from their 10th-generation counterparts, they work great for everyday computing tasks such as browsing and editing documents and photos, and they offer excellent battery life in the laptops we’ve tested.
And although these processors were designed for laptops, they do appear in some desktops, mainly all-in-one PCs and mini desktop computers. We wouldn’t recommend those kinds of computers if you’re a professional photo editor or if you’re looking for a high-end gaming PC, but they’re great for everyday web browsing, video chatting, working from home, remote schooling, and less-intensive games like Fortnite (or older ones like Fallout 4).
If you’re shopping for a desktop and you need to be able to tell what kind of chip it has inside, you can look at Intel’s (admittedly bewildering) model numbers to distinguish the 11th-generation laptop chips from the desktop ones. The laptop chips have a four-digit model number followed by the letter G and another number, as in i5-1135G7 or i3-1115G4. The desktop chips have five-digit model numbers that are sometimes followed by one or two letters, as in i5-11400, i5-11600K, or i7-11700KF.
What if you need to buy an 11th-gen desktop anyway?
An ongoing shortage of silicon chips has made buying pretty much any piece of technology more difficult and expensive than it was even a few months ago, and that’s likely to be true throughout most of 2021. So what do you do if you need a desktop PC today, and one carrying an Intel 11th-generation chip is your only option?
If you’re in this position, the 11th-generation Core i5 processors are the least bad of the lot. They do use more power than 10th-generation i5 processors or AMD’s Ryzen processors, but they’re reasonably affordable, their six processor cores offer good-enough performance for graphics-intensive games, and they don’t emit so much heat that it will cause major problems in the long run. The 11th-generation Core i7 processors run hotter and use even more power, but their two extra processor cores do at least offer a noticeable speed increase for high-end video editing or 3D drafting apps—you wouldn’t notice the difference if you were just browsing or editing documents, though.
Regardless of the kind of work you’re doing, you should completely avoid the 11th-gen Core i9 models, which cost a lot more than the Core i7 versions and use more power without offering appreciably better performance. Early reviewers have even had problems with crashing and instability with the Core i9 processors (though we expect those issues to be fixed once Intel and the PC makers have had some time to work the bugs out).
Footnotes
1. Sometimes, chip makers choose to keep a processor’s architecture more or less the same while upgrading the manufacturing process. This results in a chip that performs the same but requires less power and heat and can be cooled with fewer fans or a smaller heat sink. This is why you often see new “slim” versions of video game consoles a few years after the originals were released. Jump back.
2. There will be no 11th-generation Core i3 desktop processors; Intel will continue to sell 10th-generation Core i3 chips for budget systems. Jump back.
AMD's FidelityFX Super Resolution is surely the most eagerly anticipated feature for anyone lucky enough to have bagged themselves a new Radeon graphics card over the last six months. It promises to be the red team's answer to Nvidia's impressive Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS) tech, and could be the saviour for AMD's first-gen ray tracing attempts.
But it's still seemingly a long way out from a final version and, even though AMD has publicly said it's yet to finalise precisely how it will work, 4A Games has already stated that FidelityFX Super Resolution is incompatible with its rendering techniques and will not be supported in Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition.
It's not the fact that FFXSR isn't going to feature in the remastered Metro Exodus that's interesting here, despite it being the first big game to be released with ray-tracing GPU compatibility as a minimum system requirement. It's that 4A Games seems to be claiming it knows how AMD's new feature will work and that makes it incompatible with its own engine.
In a FAQ for Metro Exodus Enhanced Edition (via @Locuza_) there is the following question:
Will you be adding in AMD Super resolution later? We will not be adding specific support for this, as it is not compatible with our rendering techniques. However we have our own Temporal based reconstruction tech implemented that natively provides the same or better image quality benefits for all hardware.
Metro publisher Deep Silver clarified that point in a follow-up email, saying that developer 4A Games "has not evaluated the AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution feature for Metro Exodus at this time."
"In our FAQ, we were referring to the AMD FidelityFX open source image quality toolkit which targets traditional rendering techniques that our new RT only render does not use, and noting that we have our own Temporal Reconstruction tech implemented natively which provides great quality benefits for all hardware, so do not currently plan to utilize any other toolkits," a Deep Silver rep explained. "4A Games is always motivated to innovate, evaluate, and use the newest technologies that will benefit our fans across all platforms and hardware."
The plus side is that it also sounds like AMD has actually made a final decision on how to put together a feature it actively announced around the launch of the Radeon RX 6800 XT some six months ago. It was worrying that even just a month ago AMD's Scott Herkelman was telling PCWorld that it was still "evaluating the many different ways" of implementing its version of DLSS.
"Really what matters most to us is: What will the game developers want to use?" Herkelman said back in March. "Because, at the end of the day, if it's just for us and we force people to do it, it's not a good outcome.
"And so we would rather say 'gaming community, which one of these techniques would you rather see us implement?' So that way it can be immediately spread across the industry and hopefully cross-platform. There's a lot of work we have to do there… it's really which one works the best for the game developers to implement is what we're looking for."
Sadly, for AMD, it looks like at least one of those game developers does not want to use the method that the red team seems to have chosen, whatever that might end up being. Which is a shame, especially if it signals potential difficulties in gaining support for the new technology.
DLSS is not just a performance salve for the hit taken when enabling ray tracing, used on its own it can deliver a huge performance uplift without negatively impacting fidelity. Free performance for any FidelityFX Super Resolution-compatible card would certainly be welcome whether it's tied to ray tracing or not.
It is important to say, however, that this is just one game developer, and one game engine, that claims incompatibility, so it could very well just be an edge case for AMD's FFXSR. If the bulk of developers are onboard I'm okay with one game not supporting it, especially given the somewhat patchy, though admittedly increasing, support for Nvidia's DLSS.
Newly published images may reveal that Intel's forthcoming Sapphire Rapids CPU might feature roughly 72-80 cores, considerably more cores than initially thought.
Hardware blogger YuuKi_AnS, known for various leaks, has published pictures of what is claimed to be Intel's Sapphire Rapid chiplets. This time around he removed the dies from the substrate and exposed their flip side. To great surprise, this reveals a 4×5 group of similar elements which are believed to be Sapphire Rapids' CPU cores. With each chiplet carrying 20 dies (or die candidates, specifically), higher-end Sapphire Rapids processors could have as many as 80 cores, whereas lower-end chips would of course feature fewer cores.
(Image credit: YuuKi_AnS)
Previously it was reported that Intel's Sapphire Rapids will come with up to 56 Golden Cove cores, based on a slide that presumably came from Intel. That 56-core Sapphire Rapids CPU was claimed to have a TDP of 350W.
The disassembled Intel Sapphire Rapids sample is exactly the same CPU that was first pictured in February, more than three months ago, so it is not a new sample or an old sample, but the very sample that was obtained from an Intel partner either early in 2021 or late in 2020.
(Image credit: YuuKi_AnS)
According to market rumors, Intel supplied its Sapphire Rapids samples with 28 enabled cores, and many believed that the company activated only half of the cores that its chiplet physically had (i.e., 7 out of 14). As it transpires, Intel's Sapphire Rapids features 20 cores per chiplet, which theoretically allows Intel to build SPR processors with up to 80 cores. Meanwhile, 56-core CPUs will have six redundant cores per chiplet, which is way too many. By contrast, two redundant cores per chiplet would enable 72-core CPUs.
Keep in mind that Intel has never confirmed the number of cores it plans for its Sapphire Rapids processors, and plans could always change. So take all this server silicon speculation with a few multi-core grains of salt.
Intel (INTC.O) wants 8 billion euros ($9.7 billion) in public subsidies towards building a semiconductor factory in Europe, its CEO was quoted as saying on Friday, as the region seeks to reduce its reliance on imports amid a shortage of supplies.
The pitch is the first time Pat Gelsinger has publicly put a figure on how much state aid he would want, as Intel pursues a multibillion-dollar drive to take on Asian rivals in contract manufacturing.
"What we're asking from both the U.S. and the European governments is to make it competitive for us to do it here compared to in Asia," Gelsinger told Politico Europe in an interview.
A spokesman for Intel confirmed the interview took place on Friday in Brussels, where Gelsinger met European Commissioner Thierry Breton for talks on semiconductor strategy.
Gelsinger, on his first European tour since taking charge, announced a new strategy last month for Intel to invest $20 billion in chip production in the United States. read more
On top of that, Gelsinger is prospecting for a location for a plant in Europe that he says would back Breton's goal of doubling the region's share of global chip output to 20% over the next decade.
Breton held talks earlier on Friday with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) (2330.TW), the world's No.1 chip maker ahead of Korea's Samsung (005930.KS) and Intel.
In separate tweets, Breton described his meeting with Intel's Gelsinger as an "in-depth discussion", while a video call with Maria Marced, president of TSMC Europe, had been a "good exchange".
"To meet current & future semiconductor industry demand, Europe will drastically increase production capacity - both on its own and through selected partnerships to ensure security of supply," said Breton.
TSMC said the talks with Breton demonstrated its commitment to the region. "Our desire to support our customers as fully as possible means that we’re always willing to establish open communications with governments and regulators wherever they, and we, are based," the company said.
The Commission said Breton would hold further talks on May 4 with the CEOs of two Dutch semiconductor players: ASML (ASML.AS), the leading maker of semiconductor lithography tools, and with chipmaker NXP (NXPI.O).
Recent disruption to semiconductor supply chains has added urgency to efforts to reduce import dependency, yet analysts caution Europe's shrunken technology base means it doesn't offer a viable market for a leading-edge plant, or "fab". read more
Industry and diplomatic sources say that, of the Big Three chipmakers, Intel is the only one so far to express concrete interest in Breton's goal of producing the most advanced chips in Europe.
Breton's drive to attract a major foreign chipmaker has unnerved home-grown players, and he is also discussing the creation of a European semiconductor alliance that would bundle their interests. read more
Germany's Infineon (IFXGn.DE) said on Friday it welcomed Breton's initiative to strengthen chip production in Europe.
"As financial resources are naturally limited it is important to discuss most urgent needs and the most reasonable ways of investment,” Infineon said.
GERMAN VISIT
Gelsinger, who met Economy Minister Peter Altmaier and Bavarian governor Markus Soeder on the German leg of his European tour, was quoted as saying Germany would be a suitable location for a potential European foundry.
"Geopolitically, if you're in Europe, you want to be in continental Europe," he told Politico, in remarks echoed in a second interview with German business daily Handelsblatt.
"We think of Germany as a good candidate - not the only, but a good candidate - for where we might build our fabrication capabilities," he said, also indicating interest in the Benelux countries.
On the German leg of his visit, Gelsinger also met executives from carmaker BMW (BMWG.DE) and telecoms operator Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE), Intel said.
Sources said he also visited the headquarters of Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), although an Intel spokesman said he could not confirm that a meeting took place.
Separately, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess was quoted on Friday as saying the carmaker planned to design and develop its own high-powered chips for autonomous vehicles.
Gelsinger travels on next week to Israel, where Intel is due to announce a $200 million investment in a new chip development campus and the hiring of 1,000 staff. read more
(This story refiles to add dropped word in paragraph 2)
Intel may face challenges in providing foundry services
Monica Chen, Hsinchu; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES
Intel has advanced chip manufacturing technologies, but it may still experience challenges in its bid to provide wafer foundry services to third-party companies, according to sources from the semiconductor industry.
The sources pointed out that Intel is still a "novice" in such a service business model, and is unlikely to be as competitive as its first-tier and second-tier competitors such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and GlobalFoundries.
Clients are unlikely to go to Intel for services unless it can offer quotes that are far more attractive than its competitors', the sources said.
Since Intel is still integrating its foundry supply chain and ecosystem, the company will find it difficult to cut quotes in the short term, and Intel's role as a developer of automotive, HPC and AI chips may also come into conflicts with clients' interests, the sources said.
With Intel's two planned new fabs unlikely to begin volume production until 2024, the newly added capacity may see weak utilization as the current shortfall in wafer foundry supply may already have eased by then, the sources said.
Intel's new IDM 2.0 strategy has obtained support from companies including Amazon, Cisco, Ericsson, IBM, Google, Microsoft and Qualcomm with Intel planning to invest US$20 billion to build two new wafer foundries in Arizona to manufacture its products and to provide services to its clients. The fabs are scheduled to begin operation in 2024.
AMD said Wednesday that it sees June quarter revenues in the region of $3.6 billion, with a range of plus or minus $100 million, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 47%. For the full 2021 financial year, AMD said it sees revenues growing 50% from 2020 levels, indicating a total of around $14.65 billion, as bottlenecks fade and supplies slowly increase over the second half of the year.
The company saw earnings rise 150% from last year to 45 cents per share, with revenues up 92% to $3.45 billion as it stole share from rivals like Intel in the PC market and doubled down on its dominance in gaming chips.
"The entire semiconductor supply chain is very, very tight. I think you hear that from all of our peers in the marketplace," AMD CEO Lisa Su told investors on a conference call late Tuesday.
"I don't want to own Intel because it's falling behind AMD. AMD is ahead in manufacturing, and semiconductors are a manufacturing business," said Jim Cramer, the founder of TheStreet. "I'd buy AMD."
Bulls are optimistic that AMD is also enjoying a solid quarter, indicative of the rally over the last few days. However, we’ll need more than that if we’re going to see a move to new all-time highs.
For more in-depth coverage of the semiconductor sector including trading recommendations and investment strategies, follow Eric Jhonsa on Real Money.
Here is a list of the semiconductor stocks to watch and their performance by percentage change at the close of trading on Wednesday, Apr. 28:
Nvidia Corp | -0.07% 5-Day
A Reddit poster speculated that Nvidia (NVDA) - Get Report was a candidate to acquire MicroVision (MVIS) - Get Report, which saw its shares continue to rise Tuesday after more than doubling -- up 154% -- in the week through Monday. The jump came as the Reddit crowd has chosen the maker of laser technology for auto sensors as its flavor of the week.
Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) - Get Report rose Wednesday after the company reported fiscal second-quarter results that topped analyst estimates. The company more than doubled its net income from a year ago to $2.19 billion in the quarter.
Qualcomm shares were up 5.5% to $144.01 after hours Wednesday. The San Diego chipmaker reported earnings of $1.90 per share on revenue of $7.93 billion, a 52% year-over-year increase. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.67 per share on revenue of $7.62 billion, according to FactSet.
The firm also said that shortages in the semiconductor industry could lead customers to accumulate inventory or double order, which could lead to over shipments that do not reflect true demand.
The Eindhoven, Netherlands, chipmaker reported that it earned $1.25 a share compared with a loss of 8 cents a share in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue reached $2.57 billion from $2.02 billion.
At last check, NXP shares were trading up 1.5% to $208.10. They closed regular Monday trading at $205.02, up 1.7%. The stock touched a 52-week high of $216.43 on April 5.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Get Report shares traded higher Wednesday after the chipmaker forecast solid current-quarter sales and a robust full-year outlooked pinned on improving demand and a loosening of tensions in the global semiconductor supply chain.
AMD shares were marked 0.5% higher in early trading Wednesday to change hands at $85.65 each, a move that would trim the stock's year-to-date decline to around 7%.
AMD received a positive assessment from Deutsche Bank ahead of the semiconductor giant's first-quarter earnings report. But Deutsche analyst Ross Seymore kept his rating on the stock at hold, with a $90 price target, reflecting valuation.
Intel posted a bottom line of $1.39 per share on sales of $18.6 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts, but noted that current quarter profits would slow to $1.05 per share on revenues of around $17.8 billion.
That guidance appeared to offset a full-year outlook that included improved revenue forecasts of $72.5 billion, gross margins of 56.5%, and earnings of $4.60 per share, thanks in part to stronger PC demand linked to work-from-home dynamics.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) - Get Report boosted its near-term investment plans on Mar. 31, pledging to spend $100 billion over the next three years to increase production capacity, including a previously-announced factory it will build in Arizona.
Micron Technology (MU) - Get Report reported fiscal-second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The company's adjusted earnings more than doubled to 98 cents a share from 45 cents a share in the year-earlier period.
Shares of chipmaker Texas Instruments (TXN) - Get Report were falling Tuesday despite the company reporting first-quarter revenue and earnings that topped analyst estimates, as well as strong second-quarter guidance.
The company reported first-quarter revenue of $4.29 billion vs. the analyst consensus of $4.00 billion, while adjusted earnings came in at $1.87 per share versus consensus estimates for $1.58 per share. Operating income for the quarter was $1.94 billion vs. consensus estimates of $1.71 billion.
Welcome to the Capital Note, a newsletter about business, finance, and economics. On the menu today: the chip shortage has raised the stakes for Taiwan, U.S. GDP soars, and Verizon throws in the towel on digital media. To sign up for the Capital Note, follow this link. The Semiconductor Shortage Could Save Taiwan Founded in 1987 by Chinese native Morris Chang, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) was the first “pure play” foundry, a manufacturer of integrated circuits designed by other companies. Previously, chip designers manufactured their products in house, but the founding of TSMC reshaped the semiconductor industry, splitting the market between “fabless” design firms without in-house manufacturing capabilities, pure-play foundries that only manufacture, and integrated-device manufacturers that do both. Three decades later, TSMC is far and away the world’s dominant producer of semiconductors. Now, in the midst of a global chip shortage, TSMC is arguably the world’s most important company. Late last year, automakers began warning that insufficient chip supply was constraining car production. The shortage soon hit producers of everything from industrial machinery to mobile phones. Yesterday, the severity of the shortage was put on stark display when Apple, which accounts for one-fifth of TSMC’s revenue, told investors that sales of Macs and iPads would fall by some $3 billion because of supply constraints. If the world’s most valuable smartphone company can’t get its orders filled, no one will come out unscathed. Wait times for semiconductor orders, typically between four and eight weeks, have stretched as long as 52 weeks, and neither CEOs nor policy-makers can address the constraints through brute force, because new production sites take years to come online. Intel recently announced plans to build two new fabs in Arizona, but those won’t be operational until 2024. And the $50 billion allocated to semiconductor manufacturing in Biden’s infrastructure bill is unlikely to move the needle, considering that the U.S. has only 10 percent market share in chip production. While the supply shortage will eventually subside, and — if past semiconductor cycles are any indication — likely lead to a supply glut, the episode highlights the strategic importance of chip-manufacturing capabilities. TSMC and Samsung alone control close to 75 percent of the foundry market, providing inputs for a wide range of products both high and low tech. That means a large chunk of the global economy depends on just two suppliers that are not easily replaceable. Businesses may want to diversify suppliers, but the amount of knowledge and capital necessary to compete with the dominant chipmakers is staggering. The Chinese government has poured hundreds of billions into its domestic foundries to little avail, and integrated-device manufacturers in the U.S. have seen their market share steadily erode over the past three decades. Meanwhile, Beijing and Washington have sparred over the fate of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory. Over the past year, Beijing has been flexing its muscle in the Taiwan Strait, and reportedly began circling warplanes around the island in January, just days after Biden’s inauguration. The Trump administration deepened ties with the island, but the U.S. still maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward the island, offering support but stopping short of recognizing its independence outright. If American alliances in the Middle East tell us anything, it’s that Washington will go to great lengths to protect overseas economic assets. While the fight over Taiwan has largely been an ideological one, the chip shortage has added a new dimension. Should Beijing attempt an invasion, it could tip the scales toward U.S. intervention. Around the Web U.S. GDP grows 6.4 percent in the first quarter US economic growth received a boost in the first three months of 2021 from massive fiscal stimulus that fuelled consumer spending, as well as looser lockdown restrictions, bringing output close to pre-pandemic levels. Gross domestic product advanced 6.4 per cent on an annualised basis in the first quarter, the commerce department said on Thursday. That topped economists’ expectations for 6.1 per cent growth, according to a Refinitiv survey, and marked the quickest first-quarter growth since 1984. The chip shortage is worsening In a dizzying 12-hour stretch, Honda Motor Co. said it will halt production at three plants in Japan; BMW AG cut shifts at factories in Germany and England; and Ford Motor Co. reduced its full-year earnings forecast due to the scarcity of chips it sees extending into next year. Caterpillar Inc. later flagged it may be unable to meet demand for machinery used by the construction and mining industries. Now, the very companies that benefited from surging demand for phones, laptops and electronics during the pandemic that caused the chip shortage, are feeling the pinch. After a blockbuster second quarter, Apple Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri warned supply constraints are crimping sales of iPads and Macs, two products that performed especially well during lockdowns. Maestri said this will knock $3 billion to $4 billion off revenue during the fiscal third quarter. After big-ticket acquisitions of Yahoo! and AOL, Verizon throws in the towel on digital media Verizon Communications Inc. is exploring a sale of assets including Yahoo and AOL, as the telecommunications giant looks to exit an expensive and unsuccessful bet on digital media. The sales process, which includes private-equity firm Apollo Global Management Inc., could lead to a deal worth $4 billion to $5 billion, according to people familiar with the matter — assuming there is one. Other details couldn’t be learned. Verizon splashed out billions of dollars assembling a portfolio of once-dominant websites, including AOL in 2015, and Yahoo in 2017, paying more than $9 billion in total to acquire the pair. Random Walk The Financial Times ran a good overview of TSMC last month, explaining how it has combined scale and process knowledge to build a massive competitive moat: [TSMC] is getting more dominant with every new process technology node: while it only accounts for 40 to 65 per cent of revenues in the 28-65nm category, the nodes used for producing most car chips, it has almost 90 per cent of the market of the most advanced nodes currently in production. “Yes, the industry is incredibly dependent on TSMC, especially as you get to the bleeding edge, and it is quite risky,” says Peter Hanbury, a partner at Bain & Company in San Francisco. “Twenty years ago there were 20 foundries, and now the most cutting-edge stuff is sitting on a single campus in Taiwan.” Since every new node of process technology requires more challenging development and bigger investment in new production capacity, other chipmakers have over the years started focusing on design and left production to dedicated foundries such as TSMC. The steeper the cost became for new fabrication units the more other chipmakers started to outsource, and the more TSMC’s competitors in the pure-play foundry market dropped out of the race. One solution would be to diversify the supply chain by distributing TSMC fabs globally. That was the rationale for the Trump administration’s successful push to open TSMC factories in Arizona, but it’s not a perfect solution: According to analysts, one key reason the company is so efficient and profitable is its concentration of manufacturing in Taiwan. “TSMC’s major sites in Taiwan are sufficiently close enough that TSMC can flexibly mobilise our engineers to support each other when necessary,” says TSMC spokeswoman Nina Kao. A person close to the company estimates that production costs in the US are 8 to 10 per cent higher than in Taiwan. TSMC is therefore not ready to disperse its manufacturing operations across the globe. “In the US, we committed to building a fab after the authorities made clear that they would subsidise the cost gap. In Japan, our investment is focused on an area of technology that is key to our future,” says a senior TSMC executive. “But in Europe, the case is not that strong, and [the Europeans] really should figure out what exactly it is they want, and whether they can maybe achieve it with their own chipmakers.” — D.T. To sign up for the Capital Note, follow this link.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise this week said it had landed an order to build a new supercomputer for the National Supercomputing Centre (NSCC) Singapore. The new system is powered by AMD's Epyc 'Milan' processors as well as Nvidia's A100 compute GPUs; it is eight times more powerful than its predecessor.
NSCC's supercomputer uses HPE's liquid-cooled Cray EX architecture and will be one of the world's first systems based on AMD's 3rd Generation Epyc 'Milan' processors based on the Zen 3 microarchitecture (around 100,000 cores in total) as well as 352 of Nvidia's A100 compute GPUs.
The system will be comprised of about 900 nodes and is projected to provide an aggregate of up to 10 PFLOPS of raw FP64 compute power. The NSCC and HPE do not break down CPU and GPU performance in the system, though 352 Nvidia A100 GPUs can offer roughly 3.4 FP64 PFLOPS as well as a whopping 110 FP16 PFLOPS. Meanwhile, the system will be accompanied by a 10PB Cray ClusterStor E1000 storage system with over 300GB/s of read/write performance speeds.
The combination of AMD CPUs and Nvidia GPUs makes it possible to use the new supercomputer both for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) as well as traditional high-performance computing (HPC).
Initially, the NSCC will use its new HPC machine for biomedicine, genomics, diseases, engineering, and high-resolution weather modeling, but over time it can be used for a wide range of applications that require AI and/or HPC.
The NSCC and HPE expect the new supercomputer to be operations sometimes in early 2022. The system costs SGD $40 million (around $30.16 million).
Chinese motherboard manufacturer Onda (via ZOL) has launched the brand's new Chia-D32H-D4 motherboard. The model name alone is enough to tell you that this motherboard is aimed at farming Chia cryptocurrency, which has already caused hard drive price spikes in Asia.
Designed for mining, rather than to compete with the best motherboards for gaming, the Chia-D32H-D4 is most likely a rebranded version of Onda's existing B365 D32-D4 motherboard. It measures 530 x 310mm, so the Chia-D32H-D4 isn't your typical motherboard. In fact, Onda has produced a special case with an included power supply for this specific model. The unspecified 800W power supply arrives with the 80Plus Gold certification, while the case features five cooling fans.
The Chia-D32H-D4's selling point is obviously the motherboard's 32 SATA ports, allowing you to leverage up to 32 hard drives. The B365 chipset can only provide a limited amoung of SATA ports, so the Chia-D32H-D4 depends on a third-party SATA controller such as Marvell to get the count up to 32. We counted seven SATA controllers in the render of the motherboard. Assuming that each controller delivers up to four SATA ports, the remaining four should come from the B365 chipset itself.
At 18GB per drive, the motherboard can accommodate up to 576GB of storage for all your Chia farming activities — enough for around 5,760 101.4GiB plots. Based on the current Chia network stats, that would be enough for about 0.05% of the total Chia netspace, though that's likely to decrease rapidly in the coming days if current trends continue, never mind the time required to actually generate that many plots.
In terms of power connectors, the Chia-D32H-D4 comes equipped with a standard 24-pin power connector, one 8-pin EPS connector and up to two 6-pin PCIe power connectors. The latter is designed exclusively to power the hard drives.
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Chia-D32H-D4(Image credit: ZOL)
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Chia-D32H-D4(Image credit: ZOL)
Based on the LGA1151 socket and B365 chipset, the Chia-D32H-D4 is very flexible in regards to processor support. It's compatible with Intel's Skylake, Kaby Lake, Coffee Lake and Coffee Lake Refresh processors. The motherboard utilizes a modest six-phase power delivery subsystem, but it should be sufficient to house processors up to the Core i9 tier.
Besides the deep storage requirements, Chia farming is reliant memory as well. A single Chia splot requires around 4GB of memory. The Chia-D32H-D4 offers four DDR4 memory slots, providing the opportunity to have up to 128GB of memory in the system. On paper, you can plot up to 32 plots in parallel.
Expansion options on the Chia-D32H-D4 are limited to one PCIe x16 slot, one PCIe x1 slot and one M.2 slot. Connectivity, however, is pretty generous. For connecting displays, you can choose between the HDMI port or VGA port. There are also four USB 3.0 ports and two Gigabit Ethernet ports. A power button is located on both ends of the motherboard.
Onda hasn't listed the Chia-D32H-D4 motherboard on its website nor its pricing. However, rumor on the street is that motherboards are already in the hands of Chia farmers.
AMD is going from strength to strength, and leading analysts were quick to head praise on the company after its latest financial results – and one has suggested that its momentum in the CPU marketplace could trigger a price war with Intel.
As MarketWatch reports, AMD’s strong results showed growth across almost all of its products, and could see sales of around $14.65 billion this year, smashing the $13.46 billion average estimates from analysts.
Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsay points out that “AMD is continuing to gain material share in large and growing markets with the strength of its PC and server CPU road maps and customer partnerships,” and that the momentum of the company shows no sign of slowing down.
Another analyst, Mark Lipacis, said that “We continue to expect AMD’s share gains to accelerate from 50-100bps/qtr to 100-300 bps per quarter through 2021 and 2022 while AMD maintains its 1-yr process node lead.”
What does it mean for consumers?
This is all well and good, but what does it actually mean? As we’ve often remarked in the past, AMD’s momentum against Intel could be great news for consumers. Not only does it mean AMD has been putting out some brilliant products, but it could also scare Intel out of its complacency, after so many years being relatively unchallenged.
In fact, Citi Research analyst Christopher Danley, has been one of the more down-beat analysts over AMD’s performance, suggesting that the company’s gains from Intel in market share could soon come to an end, after Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s recent comments on how Intel will aggressively respond.
“Expect a price war when PCs cool,” Danley has been quoted by MarketWatch. “While AMD gained share and we expect the company to continue to gain share at least over the next couple of years, we also expect Intel to initiate a price war in 2H21 to try to maintain market share.”
This means in the second half of 2021, we could see Intel drastically cut prices of its existing CPU lineup, while releasing aggressively-priced new products, such as its Alder Lake processors.
AMD has traditionally had the price/performance advantage over Intel, so it makes sense that Intel could be looking at changing that and win back customers. Of course, this in turn could make AMD become more aggressive with its prices as well.
Whatever the result, they’ll be one winner – those of us looking to buy CPUs. With the two processor giants duking it out to release ever more powerful, yet affordable, processors, we could soon be entering a golden age of CPUs. We just need the chip shortages to end first.
The United Kingdom's Competition and Markets Authority is probing the proposed acquisition of Intel's NAND and SSD businesses by SK Hynix. Regulators like the CMA usually investigate big transactions to ensure that they do not have any negative impact on local buyers and businesses. If the CMA believes that the takeover can somehow negatively affect customers in the U.K., it may slowdown the acquisition and make certain demands.
At this point CMA is inviting concerned parties to comment on the proposed transaction between SK Hynix and Intel. The regulator expects to get the comments by May 11, when the phase 1 investigation is set to commence.
"The CMA is considering whether it is or may be the case that this transaction, if carried into effect, will result in the creation of a relevant merger situation under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002 and, if so, whether the creation of that situation may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition within any market or markets in the United Kingdom for goods or services" a statement by CMA reads. "To assist it with this assessment, the CMA invites comments on the transaction from any interested party." - CMA inquiry notice.
At present SK Hynix and Intel together control around 20% of the global NAND flash market, according to TrendForce. If SK Hynix manages to maintain this market share after it takes over Intel's NAND assets, it will become the world's second or third supplier of flash memory. Furthermore, the transaction will reduce the number of major NAND makers to five, which is better than an oligopoly with three DRAM vendors, but which still significantly reduces competition on the market. Whether or not any regulators would like to make certain demands for SK Hynix to approve the deal is something that remains to be seen, but this is certainly a possibility.
Intel and SK Hynix expect regulators across the world to approve the transaction by the end of 2021. After the approvals are received, SK Hynix will pay Intel $7 billion for the latter's NAND and SSD businesses, which includes the fab in Dalian, China, IP, and employees. The deal is expected to finally close in March 2025, when SK Hynix pays Intel the final $2 billion for the remaining assets, including IP related to the manufacture and design of NAND flash wafers, R&D employees, and the Dalian fab workforce. Meanwhile, Intel will keep producing NAND flash at the fab until the final closure of the contract.
